CBN丨China's entrepreneurs, bankers, consumers more optimistic about economy: PBOC

Hi everyone. I’m Stephanie LI.

各人好，我是主持人李莹亮。

Coming up on today’s program.

重点概要

PBOC reports show Chinese consume and invest more in Q1, while firms and banks are more optimistic;

BOC Research Institute predicts China’s GDP to hit 7.6% in Q2.

中国经济要闻

Chinese residents were more willing to consume and invest in the first quarter of the year, as fewer people were inclined to save money, according to a report released by the People’s Bank of China.

Of the 20,000 depositors surveyed by China’s central bank, 23.3 percent tended to consume more in the three months ended March 31, up 0.5 percentage point from the previous quarter. Nearly 19 percent of them were more inclined to invest more, an increase of 3.3 points.

Also, when asked what items they prefer to spend more in the next three months, depositors showed strong interest in traveling, as tourism expenditure jumped 10.7 percentage points to 24 percent in the second quarter.

On the other hand, those who preferred to save more accounted for 58 percent, down 3.8 points from the record-high of 61.8 percent reported in the fourth quarter of last year, the PBOC’s Depositor Survey Report showed.

About 69.7 percent of the surveyed depositors saw no significant change in income in the first quarter, while 15.9 percent saw an increase and 14.5 percent a decline.

Regarding house prices, just over 54 percent of the surveyed Chinese said they expect prices to remain unchanged in the second quarter. Meanwhile, 18.5 percent believe home prices will increase, and 14.4 percent that they will fall.

展开全文

The PBOC also released the first-quarter Entrepreneur Survey Report and the Banker Survey Report, showing optimism over the country's macroeconomy.

The entrepreneurs' macroeconomy heat index came in at 33.8 percent in the first quarter, up 10.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. The business climate index rose 2.6 points to 49.2 in the first quarter from last year’s fourth but declined 4.1 points from a year earlier, the Entrepreneur Survey Report showed.

From the profitability point of view, 42.9 percent of the entrepreneurs polled by the PBOC said their profits or losses remained unchanged, 26.4 percent that their profits increased or losses narrowed, while 30.7 percent saw a decline in profit or widening losses.

A separate survey on bankers showed that their macroeconomy heat index stood at 40.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, up 22.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, with the overall loan demand index surging 19 points to 78.4 in the first quarter, the Banker Survey Report showed.

4月3日，人民银行发布2023年第一季度企业家、银里手、城镇储户三份查询拜访问卷。最新的问卷成果展现，本年以来，跟着疫情形势的好转，经济开展动能继续向好，带动企业家、银里手和城镇储户群体对经济开展预期的回热。

企业家查询拜访问卷展现，本年一季度，企业家宏看经济热度指数为 33.8%，环比上升10.3个百分点，此中，64.6%的企业家认为宏看经济“一般”。在企业运营方面，运营景气指数为49.2%，环比上升2.6个百分点。

银里手群体同样认为本年一季度宏看经济环比改进明显，且对二季度宏看经济预期陆续转好。银里手查询拜访问卷展现，银里手宏看经济热度指数为 40.2%，环比上升 22.8 个百分点。此中，有62.8%的银里手认为当前宏看经济“一般”，环比增加29.6个百分点；有28.4%的银里手认为“偏冷”，环比削减37.6个百分点。对二季度，银里手宏看经济热度预期指数为50.9%，高于一季度10.7个百分点。

经济苏醒动能连结向好势头，以及开年以来一系列促经济行动密集落地，带动贷款需求的明显回热，以及银行景气宇和盈利才能的转好。查询拜访成果展现，当季贷款总体需求指数为78.4%，创自2014年一季度以来同期汗青更高程度，环比上升19.0 个百分点，同比上升6.1个百分点。此中，房地产企业贷款需求指数为55.3%，环比上升11.6 个百分点，环比增幅靠前。

往年以来备受市场存眷的居民部分高储蓄意愿现象也有所缓解。城镇储户查询拜访成果展现，本年一季度倾向于“更多储蓄”的居民占58.0%，环比削减3.8个百分点；倾向于“更多消费”的居民季度环比增加0.5个百分点，倾向于“更多投资”居民季度环比增加3.3个百分点。

不外，值得重视的是，在被问及将来三个月预备增加何种收入项目时，旅游收入占比季度环比提拔幅度更大，从上季度的占比13.3%跃升10.7个百分点至24%，展现出二季度居民出游意愿高涨。

另一个有意思的改变则是居民对二季度房价的观点，反映出居民对房价预期积极向好的改变。预期房价“上涨”的受访城镇储户的占比季度环比上升4.5个百分点至18.5%，响应的，预期房价“下降”的受访者占比环比下降4.1个百分点。预期房价“根本稳定”的占比微升，“看禁绝”的受访居民占比则微降。

此外，当季城镇储户对收进感触感染、就业感触感染都明显回热，当季收进感触感染指数环比上升6.9个百分点，收进自信心指数为环比上升5.5个百分点；就业感触感染指数上升6.8个百分点，就业预期指数上升9.4个百分点。

China’s economy will grow by 7.6 percent this quarter, accelerating from an estimated 4.1 percent gain in the first three months of the year, according to a new forecast from the Bank of China Research Institute. The impact of the pandemic on China’s economy and society will diminish further in the second quarter and consumption will continue its recent increase, the think tank said in a report published on Monday. Investment in infrastructure and the manufacturing sector will also continue growing at a faster pace, while investment in real estate is expected to stabilize and the decline in exports should narrow further. The low base of comparison is also a key reason for the stronger GDP growth in the second quarter. There will be less pressure for the PBOC to lower interest rates because of the continuous economic rebound, and the policy rate is predicted to remain unchanged this quarter, the report said. The financing environment will remain relatively loose and M2 money supply and social financing will maintain their growth trajectory.

中行研究院揣测二季度中国GDP增长7.6%：4月3日，中国银行研究院在北京发布《2023年二季度经济金融展看陈述》估量一季度GDP增长4.1%。展看二季度，中国经济将全面进进疫后修复期，消费有看延续较好恢复势头，基建和造造业投资将陆续较快增长，房地产投资逐渐企稳，出口增速有看筑底修复，降幅或陆续收窄。加之2022年同期基数较低，估量二季度GDP增长7.6%摆布，增速较一季度上升3.5个百分点摆布，或将为全年高点。 《陈述》指出，展看二季度，全球经济在消费、就业、通胀等范畴的构造性矛盾和分化特征将愈加明显，将对全球经济增长构成更多挈累。美欧银行业活动性风险将继续演化，美欧货币政策收缩程序可能分化，美圆指数将陆续从高位回落，全球股市继续承压。 《陈述》还对全球及中国银行业的开展形势停止了展看。2023年以来，全球经济面对浩瀚挑战，次要经济体继续大幅加息招致金融系统动乱，银行业运营压力加大，资产规模有所收缩，必然水平上影响盈利增长，本钱填补继续受阻。相对而言，中国银行业运营情况总体向好，经济苏醒动能逐步加强，财务货币政策组合发力，金融监管聚焦挠变革、补短板、促开展、惠民生、防风险，金融行业整体稳重开展，构成优良竞合生态。

区域看察

The third China International Consumer Products Expo, set to take place in Haikou, Hainan Province from April 10-15, will feature over 3,100 renowned brands from 60+ countries and regions, officials from China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said on Monday. The CICPE 2023 has attracted nearly 30 CEOs from the world's top 500 enterprises to attend the on-site meeting, the MOFCOM said. The exhibition area will be increased by 20 percent over the previous meeting to reach 120,000 square meters, and about 300,000 audience are expected to join the event. 第三届消博会即将开幕：4月3日，第三届中国国际消费品展览会筹备停顿情状新闻发布会上公布，由商务部和海南省人民政府配合主办的第三届中国国际消费品展览会将于4月10日至15日在海口举行，估量各项目标将全面超越第二届。本届消博会展览总面积将达12万平方米，较上届增加20%；共有来自65个国度和地域的超越3100个消费精品品牌参展；意大利为本届消博会主宾国，参展品牌达147个，展览面积约1800平方米，均比上届增长1倍摆布；30个省区市指导率交易团参展，估量摘购商和专业看寡超5万人，出场看寡超30万人次。

新任务，大将来

A ceremony was held on Monday for the opening of a new cargo air route linking the southern Chinese metropolis Shenzhen to Sao Paulo of Brazil, which is expected to stimulate the e-commerce trade between the two countries. The air route was launched by the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport and Cainiao Network, the logistics arm of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group, with two flights weekly conducted by Atlas Air's Boeing 747 all-cargo aircraft. 菜鸟首个航空货运中心落户深圳：4月3日，菜鸟与深圳宝安国际机场签订协做协议，两边将联手打造菜鸟国际快递全国首个航空货运中心，跨境包裹处置效率可提拔30%。据领会，此次落地的菜鸟国际快递深圳航空货运中心，是菜鸟全国首个航空货运中心，也将成为深圳机场电商专区首个启用的项目，估量本月内将正式投运。菜鸟还联手阿特拉斯正式开通了中国深圳-巴西圣保罗货运包机航路，那是深圳飞往南美的首条全货机国际货运航路，也是首条至金砖国度的“跨境电商空运专线”。

财产及公司新闻

With a brand value of 1.04 trillion yuan, Kweichow Moutai has become the most valuable Chinese brand for the fifth consecutive year, according to Hurun Most Valuable Chinese Brand 2022 ranking released on Monday. Kweichow Moutai, the only trillion-dollar brand, is followed by another liquor brand Wuliangye and a cigarette brand ChungHwa. Although its brand value dropped 33 percent to 160 billion yuan, short-video app Douyin rose one spot to tie with WeChat for the fourth place. Meanwhile, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen remain the top three cities with the most brands on the list, with 70, 52 and 32, respectively, collectively accounting for more than half of the top 300. 贵州茅台五度连任“更具价值中国品牌”：4月3日，胡润研究院发布《2022胡润品牌榜》。此中，贵州茅台以10350亿元品牌价值排名总榜单第一，持续第五次成为“更具价值中国品牌”，是独一一个万亿级品牌。五粮液以2500亿元品牌价值排名总榜单第二，中华排名第三。抖音品牌价值固然下跌33%至1600亿元，但排名上升一位，和微信并列第四；京东固然下跌25%至1200亿元，但排名上升两位至第七。拼多多、天猫和淘宝跌出十强。分城市看，北京、上海和深圳仍然是上榜品牌最多的前三大城市，别离有70个、52个和32个，总计占300强一半以上。

Huawei Technologies announced plan to pay out dividends of nearly 72 billion yuan through its employee shareholder scheme, 10.5 billion yuan more than the previous year, media reported today. Some 142,315 current and former workers are involved in the scheme, according to the company’s 2022 annual report released last week. The company is private and wholly owned by its employees, including its founder Ren Zhengfei. 华为2022年分红719.55亿元：4月4日，媒体得悉，经华为公司内部有权机构决议，拟向股东分配股利人民币719.55亿元。比拟2021年分红总额614.04亿元，同比增加105.51亿元。华为2022年年报展现，华为投资控股有限公司是100%由员工持有的民营企业。公司通过工会实行员工持股方案，员工持股方案参与人数为142315人（截至2022年12月31日），参与人均为公司在人员工或退休保留人员。

Taobao, a major online retail platform of Alibaba Group Holding, has launched a specialized sales channel for goods priced up to 10 yuan to compete with JD.Com and Pinduoduo. Some users can already see the channel and is expected to widen access to all Taobao users by April 30, media reported yesterday. 淘宝首页将上线99特卖频道：4月3日，媒体得悉，淘宝已面向部门用户，在其app首页上线了99特卖频道。一张新版淘宝首页截图展现，99特卖频道与淘宝曲播并列，在首页最显眼位置处展现，该进口处还标有“9.9”的字眼。据悉，目前，并非每个用户都能够看到那个频道。一名电商行业人士称，估量淘宝只针对部门用户开放了那一频道。一般情状下，本月内有看面向所有用户上线。

金融市场动静

The Chinese path to modernization has put forward various new tasks for the central bank system in all aspects, with priorities given to yuan’s stability and financial stability, said Yi Gang, China’s central bank governor, on Tuesday at a forum. Full employment and economic growth will be achieved when the two tasks are accomplished, Yi added. 建立现代央行轨制更好办事中国式现代化：央行行长易纲在2023中国金融学术年会暨中国金融论坛年会上颁发讲话称，中国式现代化对建立现代中心银行轨制提出了新的要求，使命包罗方方面面，归纳综合起来，最重要的使命就是实现币值不变和金融不变。那两项使命实现了，就可以促进足够就业和经济增长。

More than 10,000 Chinese mutual funds, which have disclosed their annual reports, recorded nearly 1.5 trillion yuan of losses last year due to falling stock markets. Just 3,155 out of 10,085 mutual funds were profitable last year, according to financial data provider Wind Information. Fixed-income products were more stable than equity. Currency funds achieved profits of 201 billion yuan while bond funds earned 86.3 billion yuan. Mixed funds recorded the biggest loss with 1.12 trillion yuan, followed by stock funds with over 580 billion yuan in the red. 公募基金产物往年亏1.47万亿：公募基金2022年年报披露落下帷幕，据Wind数据，往年公募基金共收取治理费用合计1458.26亿元，但公募基金治理人旗下产物则合计吃亏1.47万亿元。货币市场型基金连结“不变输出”，2022年合计盈利2010亿元；债券型基金以863亿元盈利次之。吃亏最多的是混合型基金，年内累计吃亏1.12万亿元；而股票型基金、国际(QDII)基金、FOF基金全年吃亏额别离为5801亿元、352亿元、171亿元。

Over 80 percent of Chinese brokerages have posted a fall in revenue in 2022 from the year before. Only three out of the 26 securities firms to have published their financial reports for 2022 so far logged a jump in revenue from the year before and only two achieved profit growth, according to data from Wind Information. Data disclosed by China Securities Association showed that the industry is generally under pressure as both their revenue and net profit fell over 20 percent last year, amid a sluggish stock market. Combined revenue of the 140 securities firms in China stood at 350 billion yuan, down 21.4 percent, while total net profit fell 25.5 percent to come in at 142.3 billion yuan. 券商往年功绩整体承压：截至3日，共计26家上市券商或母公司披露了2022年年报。在市场颠簸布景下，证券行业往年整体功绩“回撤”。上述券商中，22家营收、回母净利润双降，占比超八成。从中证协率先披露的2022年证券公司“总功效”来看，“承压”仍是今年报季的关键词，行业总体营收和净利润同比降幅均超越20%。140家证券公司2022年实现营业收进3949.73亿元，同比下降21.38%；实现净利润1423.01亿元，同比下降25.54%。

股市收盘情状

Chinese stocks ended mixed on Tuesday with the benchmark Shanghai Composite up 0.5 percent to stand above the 3300 mark, while the Shenzhen Component slid 0.3 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shed 0.7 percent and the TECH index dipped 1.6 percent. A股分化港股收跌：周二A股全天震荡分化，沪指重回3300点上方，创业板指震荡调整。截至收盘，沪指涨0.49%报3312点，深成指跌0.25%，创业板指跌0.76%。两市成交额13246亿元，续创年内新高。北向资金全天净卖出36.51亿元。港股低开后弱势震荡，截至收盘，恒生指数跌0.66％，报20274.59点，恒生科技指数跌1.61％，报4233.42点。

Biz Word of the Day

财经词汇划重点

A mutual fund is a financial vehicle that pools assets from shareholders to invest in securities like stocks, bonds, money market instruments, and other assets. Mutual funds are operated by professional money managers, who allocate the fund's assets and attempt to produce capital gains or income for the fund's investors. 配合基金，国内又称为公募基金，是由基金司理的专业金融从业者治理，向社会投资者公开募集资金以投资于证券市场的营利性的公司型证券投资基金。配合基金购置股票、债券、贸易票据、商品或衍素性金融商品，以获得利钱、股息或本钱利得。

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Editor: LI Yanxia

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筹谋、编纂：李艳霞

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