日本网友问：日本还能像在二战中那样打败中国吗？美国专家斥荒唐

在美版知乎Quora上，一名日本网友发问道：日本还能像在二战中那样随便打败中国吗？一名美国汗青专家认为那个问题底子不成立，并连系中国二战汗青发文给他上了一课。

日本如今能不克不及像二战时那样击败中国？

Many people think that in the Second World War, Japan occupied 26 provinces of China and more than 6 million square kilometers of land. They naturally think that Japan defeated China. Most people who hold this argument are supporters of "western historical revisionism", or idiots, or both.

有很多人认为第二次世界大战中，日本侵吞了中国26个省，足足六百余万平方公里的地盘，便天然而然地认为日本打败了中国，持有那种论调的人，多是“西方汗青批改主义”的拥趸，否则就是痴人，或者两者兼而有之。

Why do supporters of this fallacy not understand that if China is defeated, will China be a victorious country in the anti fascist war? Will you attend the founding members of the United Nations and the permanent members of the Security Council? Will China have today's international status? Besides, facts speak louder than words. I can reproduce that history. You should know that the history in your Japanese textbooks is just what the Japanese government wants you to see.

那种谬论的撑持者为什么不睬解，假设中国被打败了，中国会是反法西斯战争成功国吗？会列席结合国的开创国和安理睬常任理事国吗？中国会有今天的国际地位吗？况且事实胜于雄辩，下面我能够帮你回忆一下那段汗青。要晓得你们日本教科书上的汗青，只是日本政府期看你们看到的。

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In 1931, after Japan occupied the northeast, the leadership in Tokyo hesitated on whether to expand the war against China, because it would invest huge military and national strength. In 1936, the leftist anti war officers attempted to launch a coup, which instead gave the Japanese Nazis an excuse, and the forces of Japanese moderates were quickly strangled. The discussion at the top of Japan directly changed from whether to carry out a full-scale war with China to how to launch a full-scale war against China, and even made a false statement: destroy China in three months.

1931年，在日本占据东北之后，东京的指导层对能否扩展对华战争方面优柔寡断，因为那将投进浩荡的军力和财力。1936年，右派反战军官策动政变未遂，那反而赐与日本纳粹分子以遁词，日本主和派权力很快被扼杀，日本高层的讨论间接从能否同中国停止全面战争转向若何对中国策动全面战争，以至妄言：三个月消亡中国。

At the initial stage of the war of aggression against China, the Japanese army headquarters tended to keep the theater in northern China for fear that the Soviet Union coveted the northeast, but the Japanese Navy insisted on marching into East China in order to preempt the influx of Chinese reinforcements into the north and achieve the purpose of dispersing Chinese forces. In the early stage of the war, although Japan repeatedly succeeded, with the extension of the front, the Japanese attack was completely in trouble. Only one Songhu battle lasted for three months, and the casualties of the Japanese army were far more than expected.

在侵华战争的最后阶段，因为担忧苏联觊觎东北，日本陆军司令部倾向于将战区连结在中国北方，但日本海军对峙进军中国华东地域，以夺先中国援助队伍涌进北方，到达分离中国军力的目标。在战争前期，日本固然屡屡到手，但跟着战线的拉长，日军的进攻完全陷进了窘境，仅仅一场淞沪会战，就继续了三个月，日军的伤亡也远超预期。

淞沪会战

Since the national government declared war on Japan in 1937, although the Chinese Army initially encountered a series of failures in coastal provinces, the situation began to turn since 1938, and the Chinese army began to win a major victory against the well-equipped Japanese army. Taierzhuang campaign (1938), Wanjialing campaign (1938), Kunlunguan / Southern Guangxi campaign (1939), Changsha first campaign (1939), Wuyuan campaign (1940), Changsha campaign (1941), Southern Henan campaign (1941) and Shanggao campaign (1941), The major confrontation between the Japanese army and the Chinese Army involving multiple divisions caused tens of thousands of casualties.

自1937年国民政府对日宣战以来，中国戎行固然最后在沿海省份遭遇了一系列失败，但自1938年起，形势起头有了转折，中国戎行起头在匹敌配备精良的日军时获得严重成功。台儿庄战争（1938年）、万家岭战争（1938年）、昆仑关/桂南战争（1939年）、长沙第一次战争（1939年）、婺源战争（1940年）、长沙第二次战争（1941年）、豫南战争（1941年）、上高战争（1941年），仅以上几个例子，日军与中国戎行停止的涉及多个师的严重比武就形成了数万人伤亡。

Even if the Japanese army occupied the territory, due to the lack of manpower, Japan could not fully control these areas. Most of the Japanese troops are concentrated near the urban center, while in the surrounding countryside, guerrillas are active in combating Japanese aggressors. Japan once tried to establish a puppet government like the "puppet Manchukuo" to appease the local people. However, due to the wanton destruction and inhuman atrocities of Japanese Nazis and the patriotic feelings of ordinary Chinese, it is difficult to get the support of Chinese civilians.

即便日军占据了领土，但因为欠缺人力，日本也无法完全掌握那些治下的地域。大部门日军集中驻扎在城市中心四周，而四周的农村，游击队正积极活动，冲击日本侵略分子。日本曾试图成立“伪满洲国”那样的傀儡政府来抚慰本地苍生，但因为日本纳粹分子毫无所惧地毁坏和灭绝人道的暴行，加上通俗中国人多怀有爱国主义情怀，故很罕见到中国布衣的撑持。

Another difficult problem faced by Japanese imperialism is China's strategic depth. There are many mountains in the mainland, and there are few available roads or railways. Therefore, logistics support has become a major problem for the Japanese army. In addition, they are often ambushed. From the end of 1942 to the middle of 1944, the war entered a stalemate stage, and large-scale open warfare became less frequent. However, during this period, the Chinese army still achieved some major victories, such as the Third Battle of Changsha (1942) and the battle of Changde (1943).

日本帝国主义面临的另一个难题就是中国的战术纵深。大陆内地多山，几乎没有可用的公路或铁路，因而后勤保障成为日军的一大难题，此外，他们还经常遭到伏击。1942岁暮至1944年年中，战争进进了相持阶段，大规模公开交战变得不那么频繁。然而，在那段时间里，中国戎行仍然获得了一些严重成功，如第三次长沙战争（1942年）和常德战争（1943年）。

In the middle of 1944, the Japanese army tried to change the status quo by launching the "No. 1 operation plan", which was the largest continuous battle since the Japanese army fought against China. It successfully occupied many cities in southern China, but the countryside was still its weak link. This allowed Chinese soldiers to slowly encroach on and wait for the opportunity to ambush the weak flank or rear forces in the face of the powerful Japanese army. In this battle alone, 100000 Japanese died (many died of diseases). Only four months later, the Japanese were defeated by the Chinese army in the battle of Western Hunan.

1944年中期，日军试图通过策动“一号做战方案”来改动现状，那是日军对华做战以来规模更大的继续战争，胜利占据了中国南部的许多城市，但农村仍是其单薄环节，那使得中国兵士在面临配备强大的日军时，能够先渐渐蚕食，伺机伏击较弱的侧翼或前方队伍。仅在此次战争中，日军就有10万人灭亡（许多人死于疾病），仅四个月后，日军就在湘西战争中被中国戎行击败。

Some people say that China's victory actually depends on the assistance of the United States. Here I would like to disagree. Although the United States did provide supply and assistance to China from 1937 to 1945, the actual help was far from reaching the "victory turning point" considered by some people. Although China ranks fourth on the list of recipient countries, its total aid is only half of that of France, which was officially eliminated from the war in June 1940 because of its premature surrender.

有人说中国的成功其实是仰仗美国的援助，在此我要提出不附和见。虽然美国在1937-1945年间确实向中国供给了赐与和援助，但现实搀扶帮助远未到达一些人所认为的“成功转折点”。虽然中国在受援国名单上排名第四，但援助总额仅为法国的一半，而法国因过早投降已于1940年6月正式从战争中被裁减。

驼峰航路

From 1937 to 1944, Japan almost completely controlled the Western Pacific and China's east coast ports, which made it impossible to ship directly to China. The only option left was to provide materials to China through Britain controlled India. However, after the Japanese army closed the Yunnan Myanmar highway, the Allies had to open a "Hump" route in the Himalayas to airlift war readiness materials. Although this was dangerous and limited the transportation capacity, they had no choice at that time. In 1944, when a large number of American supplies began to arrive in China, enough to equip multiple divisions, the situation of the war against Japan had turned sharply.

1937-1944年间，日本几乎完全掌握了西承平洋以及中国的东海岸港口，那使得间接海运到中国完全不成能。剩下的独一抉择是通过英国掌握的印度向中国供给物资，但在日本戎行封闭了滇缅公路后，友邦不能不在喜马拉雅山开启“驼峰”航路，空运战备物资，固然如许既求助紧急又限造了运输才能，但在其时别无抉择。1944年，当美国补给起头大量抵达中国，足以配备多个师时，对日战争的场面地步已经急剧转向。

At that time, China was poor, while Japan had strong ships and artillery. It's hard to imagine that Japanese fascists surrendered after heavy casualties and were driven out of China. You call it victory? You can say that Japan won several wars in World War II, but if it defeated China, it is completely inconsistent with historical facts.

其时的中国一穷二白，而日本船坚炮利。不可思议日本法西斯在颠末严重伤亡事后投降，接着被赶出中国，你竟然称之为成功？你能够说日本在二战中获得了几场战争的成功，但假设说击败了中国，那完全不契合史实。

From your question, in addition to the misunderstanding of history, I also read that you Japanese still have the ambition to wage war, and the target of the war is today's China.

从你的问题中，除了对汗青的曲解，我还读到你们日本人仍然抱有策动战争的野心，并且战争对象竟然是今日的中国。

The world's second largest economic and military power with nuclear weapons?

一个拥有核兵器的世界第二大经济、军事强国？

Moreover, according to the Japanese Constitution, Japan is now restricted from developing offensive weapons, and the army can only be used for self-defense. Your defense right is now in the hands of the United States!

况且根据《日本宪法》规定，如今的日本被限造开展进攻性兵器，戎行只能用以侵占，你们的防备权如今在美国的手中！

I hope you can think with normal rather than emotional thinking. Don't dream. How can Japan, a country with only one tenth of China's population, win a war under the condition that its military, economy and resources are completely crushed!

期看你能以一般而非情感化的思维根究，别做梦了，日本，一个只要中国非常之一生齿的国度，若何可以在军事、经济、资本被全面碾压的前提下，打赢一场战争！